A deadly puzzle

During World War II, the U.S. military faced a deadly puzzle: Where should they reinforce the armor on their planes?

When engineers examined the returning planes, they noticed bullet holes concentrated on the wings, fuselage, and tail. Naturally, they assumed these areas needed extra protection.

But Abraham Wald, a mathematician, saw something others didn’t. He realized they were only looking at planes that had survived. The planes that didn’t make it back—the ones riddled with bullet holes in other critical areas—weren’t part of the analysis.

Wald’s insight flipped the problem on its head. Instead of reinforcing the areas with visible damage, he advised reinforcing the parts that showed no damage on the returning planes. Why? Because those were the areas where hits had likely caused the planes to go down.

This is a powerful example of survivorship bias: the tendency to focus on visible successes while ignoring the invisible failures.

In business and life, it’s easy to focus on what’s working while overlooking what’s missing. We look at success stories, copy strategies from “winners,” and ignore the lessons buried in what didn’t survive.

The real opportunities often lie in what we’re not seeing.

So here’s a challenge: Where in your work are you only looking at the survivors? And what insights might you gain by seeking out what’s missing?